Sunday, August 4, 2013

Methane as high as 2349 ppb


Earth is undergoing one of the largest climate changes in the past 65 million years, Stanford climate scientists Noah Diffenbaugh and Chris Field report, and it's on pace to occur at a rate 10 times faster than any change in that period.

“We know from past changes that ecosystems have responded to a few degrees of global temperature change over thousands of years,” said Diffenbaugh. “But the unprecedented trajectory that we're on now is forcing that change to occur over decades.”

Some of the strongest evidence for how the global climate system responds to high levels of carbon dioxide comes from paleoclimate studies. Fifty-five million years ago, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was elevated to a level comparable to today. The Arctic Ocean did not have ice in the summer, and nearby land was warm enough to support alligators and palm trees. But apart from the rate of change, Diffenbaugh adds, another key difference is that “today there are multiple human stressors that were not present 55 million years ago, such as urbanization and air and water pollution.”

By the end of the century, should the current emissions of greenhouse gases remain unchecked, temperatures over the northern hemisphere will tip 5-6 degrees C warmer than today's averages. In this case, the hottest summer of the last 20 years becomes the new annual norm.

The situation looks to be even more dire than that, argues Sam Carana. In addition to carbon dioxide, there are further pollutants driving global warming. Moreover, as pictured below, feedbacks can dramatically accelerate the rise in temperature locally, particularly in the Arctic.

Image 21. For more details on feedbacks, see extended version of this image and discussion at

The level of methane in the atmosphere has already been rising even faster than the level of carbon dioxide, as illustrated by the image below. Moreover, there's the threat that large additional amounts of methane will suddenly be released, in particular from the Arctic seabed.


In August 2013, methane were recorded as high as 2349 ppb, as illustrated by the graph on below (added later, editor), showing that in early August, the world's mean methane level suddenly increased with at least 10 ppb compared to mean levels over the past few months.




To get an idea just how much methane has entered the atmosphere, have a look at the image below, covering several days from the start of August 2013.

[ click on image to enlarge ]


This is further illustrated by the two images below. The image directly below shows where the highest methane levels (i.e. over 1950 ppb, in yellow) were recorded on August 2, 2013.

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The image below shows the presence of methane on August 2, 2013, for a number of ranges, including at levels over 1950 ppb (this time in red).

[ click on image to enlarge ]
The methane threat is further described in the post Methane hydrates, which also features the image below.


Methane as high as 2303 ppb

This post has been updated as Methane as high as 2349 ppb.

Friday, August 2, 2013

Where does the methane come from?

[ image July 29, 2013. Click on image to enlarge ]
Wildfires are still raging, sending huge amounts of smoke into the sky. Worryingly, much black carbon that comes with this smoke gets deposited at high latitudes, discoloring snow and ice, and thus speeding up the melt.

A lot of methane has been emitted over the last few days, and much appears to be due to wildfires, as illustrated by the image below, picturing the situation on July 31, 2013, p.m.

[ click on image to enlarge ]
Above image shows some methane on the right, over the Atlantic Ocean, which appears to originate from these wildfires and is visible in that location due to the Coriolis effect. The image below, picturing the situation on August 1, 2013, p.m., shows a lot of methane over Russia and elsewhere in Europe and Asia. Again, the methane on the left of Europe appears to originate from wildfires in North America.

[ click on image to enlarge ]
High levels of methane are recorded in many places on the Northern Hemisphere, and there is also a lot over the Southern Hemisphere, as illustrated by the image below.

[ click on image to enlarge ]
Where did the methane over the oceans on the Southern Hemisphere come from? It appears that it originates from hydrates under the ocean floor. For more about methane hydrates, also see the methane-hydrates blog.

Ecological Statement on the Future of Earth



The following statement was initiated by John B. Davies, in the hope that it will also be signed by many climatologists, ecologists and anyone who is similarly concerned about climate catastrophe, and given wide media coverage. The statement reflects the views of signatories personally, rather than the views of organizations they may be associated with, hence the links to personal pages such as at facebook and Google+. Nonetheless, businesses, groups and organizations are equally invited to join this call for action. Add your name and copy this statement widely! 



ECOLOGICAL STATEMENT ON THE FUTURE OF THE EARTH

Life on earth is facing a profound crisis.

Human industrial society has impacted life on earth in multitudes of ways especially through the vastly increased greenhouse gas concentration of the atmosphere. Trade and rapid transport around the earth are introducing invasive species everywhere. New bacteria and micro biological life are being moved to areas in which they did not previously live causing new diseases for animals and plants. Forests are being lost globally adding to the carbon concentration of the air and causing many species to go extinct.

Farming using nitrogenous fertilisers is causing a loss of nutrients whilst soil itself is being lost on a large scale as a result of farming

No later than 2050, and probably much sooner, global temperatures will have risen significantly. Farming will be nearly impossible in an unstable global climate and ecosystem. There will be large scale loss of species as a result of a collapsing global ecosystem.

There will probably have been a collapse of the global economy before 2050, which may come as almost a sudden event or could occur over a decade or two. This will probably lead into a political and societal collapse with far fewer people surviving on the planet in very inhospitable circumstances.

Human society is not reacting to the situation effectively because most nations and industries, but not all, make strenuous efforts to protect the living planet but because it is so costly our society does far from all that is absolutely necessary and then just hopes for the best.

The situation is far from hopeless if we react now. However, if humanity does not react to this crisis almost immediately, then global ecological collapse and the collapse of human civilisation before 2050 is almost inevitable. Most of the worst damage can still be avoided. However once the situation starts to deteriorate rapidly there will be no way in which it can be slowed or reversed, we will be doomed.

The first priority is for all governments and most people to acknowledge the grave crisis the earth is facing almost immediately because only then can humanity react effectively.

Secondly there needs to be a statement in general terms of what must be done. The two most important actions contained within the statement are a deep reduction in greenhouse gas emissions very quickly which will affect the wealthy nations more than others and very wealthy people more than poorer people. This may mean a global economic contraction. Secondly a group of leading scientists needs to be set up under the authority of the United Nations to set the priorities for urgent action in all other areas. These actions need to be implemented very quickly and with great determination so that they are effectively applied. Many areas, especially the arctic, are in a critical situation.

The trends which are leading life on this planet to disaster need to be shown to be turning around very quickly. This is achievable but unless this is done very quickly modern civilisation will collapse in the near future.

Sign the petition at AVAAZ, at:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/petition/HELP_SAVE_LIFE_ON_EARTH

John B Davies
Douglas Spence